Smithers research charts transition for offset to digital print

Smithers, a market research company specializing in the printing industry, has published The Future of Digital vs Offset Printing to 2029, a new report showing that offset litho is facing challenges across many applications, including competition from digital print.

The new report tracks the commercial and technology outlook for both offset and digital sectors across the next five years. It quantifies current and future market volume and value by print process, end-use application and region.

According to the report, the economic disruption of COVID-19 has severely cut print volumes. Global output fell from 49.0 trillion A4 equivalents in 2019 to 44.1 trillion in 2024 and has little prospect of recovery to pre-pandemic levels; across the same period, value rose only slightly from 887.9 billion USD in 2019 to 898.0 billion USD in 2024.

Offset was significantly impacted by this, said the report, with major falls in both volume and value of heatset and coldset litho. This reflects the wider transition from physical to electronic media and the trend is set to continue across the rest of the decade.

The firm expects that sheetfed litho volumes will grow marginally, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3 percent pushing volume to 6.9 trillion A4 prints in 2029; value will increase at 1.4 percent CAGR from 183.3 billion USD in 2024 to 194.5 billion USD in 2029.

However, according to the report, the outlook for digital is more positive. Value will increase at a 4.8 percent CAGR to reach 209.1 billion USD in 2029. Volumes will increase faster (5.5 percent CAGR) from 1.95 trillion A4 prints in 2024 to 2.41 trillion in 2029.

‘Digital is directly displacing litho in several applications – notably through the use of inkjet for print-on-demand books, advertising, and transactional print. This will be partially compensated for by new demand for sheetfed litho in packaging, but here it is also in competition with gravure and flexo,’ reads the report.

Offset press OEMs are increasing the top speed of their flagship models in several cases to over 20,000 sheets per hour. They are also adding more automation to their presses. This responds to a shortage of skilled labor, while improving productivity, including on shorter run lengths.

Inkjet developers are also improving speed, including via greater automation; as well as resolution and print quality. New machines are under development for the packaging segment, leveraging experience gained in narrow web label print, to exploit demand for digital print on corrugated board, folding cartons and flexible packaging.